With the Las Vegas betting line showing Manny Pacquiao a heavy favorite over David Diaz, IBF flyweight champion Nonito Donaire Jr. yesterday advised the Filipino icon to ignore the odds, which could create a false sense of security.

Filipino fans began arriving from Manila a few days ago and are anticipating a slugfest in Pacquiao’s quest for a fourth world title at the Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino in Las Vegas tomorrow night (Sunday morning, Manila).

So far, Pacquiao has won world championships in three different divisions – WBC flyweight, IBF superbantamweight and WBC superfeatherweight. He also gained recognition as the “people’s” featherweight champion by Ring Magazine but no governing body sanctioned it. Pacquiao’s camp is using the battlecry “Drive For Five” in promoting the fight, counting the Ring Magazine title.

Oddsmakers aren’t giving Diaz, who is staking the WBC lightweight crown, much of a chance to upset Pacquiao. But in boxing, anything is possible. Upsets often happen and some of history’s biggest shockers were James (Buster) Douglas’ knockout over Mike Tyson, Hasim Rahman’s disposal of Lennox Lewis and Leon Spinks’ decision over Muhammad Ali.

“Manny shouldn’t listen to the bettors,” said Donaire who flew in from San Francisco last Wednesday. “You can’t underestimate Diaz. We know about his staying power. He was behind on points when he knocked out (Jose Armando) Santa Cruz and beat (Erik) Morales. He gets stronger the longer the fight.”

Donaire said Pacquiao should be able to dominate Diaz with his speed and power but he wouldn’t rule out an upset.

“I think it’s 80-20 in Manny’s favor,” said Donaire. “If it goes past six, it could go down to 60-40 because Diaz has excellent stamina and wears you down. Diaz’ biggest flaw is lack of speed. Because he’s slow, he has no angles to hit you. He’ll try to land a good shot if he catches you off-guard. He tends to come forward so with Manny’s jab, he won’t be able to set up.”

Donaire, however, said a hungry fighter with everything to gain is dangerous.

“You can’t overlook Diaz’ desire to win,” he said. “I know what that feels like because I was a big underdog when I fought (Vic) Darchinyan and I knocked him out. When you’re hungry, you do everything you can to win, to make it happen. Diaz has worked hard for this fight and wants to win badly.”

Donaire said he expects Diaz to balloon to about 154 pounds when the bell rings. The lightweight limit is 135.

“I was at the press conference last Wednesday and Diaz looked drained, like he couldn’t wait to get the weigh-in over with,” he said. “He’s a natural 140-pounder so I think he’s having a hard time making 135. Manny, on the other hand, looked comfortable at lightweight, smiling and very attentive to what was going on.”

Trainer Freddie Roach said Pacquiao will check in for the fight no more than 10 pounds over what he’ll scale at the weigh-in.

Donaire said the weight disparity could make a difference. “Physically, Diaz is bigger than Manny,” said Donaire. “I don’t know if that means he’ll be able to take Manny’s punches. I think he’ll get hurt only from punches he doesn’t see coming. A bigger opponent could go down but won’t stay down. Diaz will do what it takes to win unless he gets knocked out cold. He’s got a tough chin and he loves to brawl it out. He’s an inside fighter. His style is to crowd his opponent.”

Fight fan Mari Ojeda, whose father Manuel was a boxing judge and once owned Gold Medal Promotions, said Pacquiao should avoid a direct confrontation in the early rounds.

“Diaz is bigger than Manny which could mean he’s stronger and his punches are harder,” said Ojeda who flew in from Manila last Tuesday. “I hope Manny’s cut above the right eye (from the Juan Manuel Marquez fight last March) has healed because if not, that could be a problem. If Manny sticks and runs in the first five rounds, he’ll frustrate Diaz. Then, he can go for the kill in the late rounds. But he should always be on his guard. Diaz won’t go away easily.” - Joaquin Henson